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Trade tensions return to the forefront of the global economy - Country and Sectors risks Barometer

The first part of 2019 was marked by the decline in world trade, which will decrease in volume over the year as a whole according to our forecasts (-0.7%), despite a slight recovery expected in the second half of 2019.

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An unsure future for natural gas: How risks could derail the current boom

The energy industry is quickly evolving: as renewable energy sources increase in popularity compared to fossil fuels, their costs are plummeting. New forms of electricity conservation have recently become the focal point of widespread international attention, resulting in heavy investment and research. Furthermore, natural gas is increasingly losing its reputation as a cleaner energy source in the battle against climate change, as it pollutes more than renewable alternatives.

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Corporate insolvencies in France: micro-entreprises in the wave’s trough

During the first four months of 2019, the rate of corporate insolvencies in France increased by +0.8%. This rate was particularly high during January and February, mainly due to the repercussions of the "gilets jaunes" (yellow vests) movement; however, the increasing rate of insolvencies declined in March and April. Nonetheless, Coface anticipates that, despite resilient economic growth, insolvencies will increase by +1.7% over the whole of 2019 (…)

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From copycat to early bird: Taking stock of China’s 5G ambitions

China has rapidly become a big player in 5G technology, thanks to the government’s strategy and its support of high investment in Research and Development (R&D). This new technology is part of the Made in China 2025 initiative, through which the Chinese government targets self-sufficiency in high-end industries. China coordinated its approach to 5G and some successes are already visible. For example, 40% of global patents for current 5G network standards are from Chinese firms. Moreover, Chinese companies are set to benefit from 5G. Huawei is the global leader in network infrastructures; it currently holds 29% of the market (...)

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Luxury market performance in global economic downturns: is this time different?

The luxury market is unique, mainly due to the fact that its products are consumed for social distinction. This has helped companies in the segment to outperform other sector-segments over the past years. Nevertheless, the luxury market is facing important challenges, notably regarding counterfeit products, a risk for companies, and e-commerce, which is disrupting how business is conducted. In addition, the market is not immune to challenging economic conditions. Global economic activity is currently experiencing a slowdown: Coface forecasts a global GDP growth rate of 2.9% in 2019 after 3.2% in 2018, and this will have an impact on some luxury products. Looking ahead, the rise of emerging markets’ middle classes – especially in China – presents great opportunities. Despite global economic slowdown, we are therefore expecting the luxury retail market overall to be resilient, notably benefiting from the rise of Chinese consumers’ appetite for luxury.

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Central Asia: is the ménage à trois with China and Russia sustainable?

Central Asia is both a partner and a trade gateway for China and Europe. It is located on two branches of the New Silk Road. Despite criticism, China is the most involved in the development of Central Asian corridors. This deployment is not obvious given the competition from other routes and poor regional cooperation. While Russian influence remains significant through expatriate remittances, its military bases, and culture, it is being supplanted by China in economic matters.

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The great industrial rotation continues - Country and Sector risks Barometer

Signs of the global economic slowdown continued to accumulate at the beginning of 2019: companies are much less confident than a year ago, and global trade is showing signs of fatigue.

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Country risk assessment map - April 2019

New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 161 countries assessed by Coface.

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Infographics - Sector risk assessments - April 2019

Infographics - Sector risk assessments

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Despite five years of “Modinomics”, India continues to be constrained by economic fragilities

When Narendra Modi ran for Prime Minister in 2014, he pledged to boost the competitiveness of India’s industrial sector to promote growth. Five years later, the economy is in a better position, but many of the structural fragilities that Modi inherited continue to afflict India today (...)

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Latin America: Brazil and Mexico’s oil industries – opposite policies?

In the context of a global oil market that is likely to remain volatile, the two largest Latin American economies – Brazil and Mexico – are expected to implement significant changes in their energy policies in the medium term. Both countries have appointed new presidents in the last year following polarised elections: in Brazil the right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro took office in January 2019, while December 2018 saw the arrival of left-wing André Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)1. Similarly, the two oil industries share two main common features: their state-owned companies have experienced significant financial and governance issues, and both countries are crude oil exporters and net oil derivative importers. Conversely, in terms of energy policies, they appear to be taking opposite directions.

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China Payment Survey 2019: Longer delays as growth falters

The Chinese economy experienced some challenges in 2018 . Corporate bond defaults in US dollars quadrupled, reaching an amount of USD 16 billion, while the number of bankruptcy cases settled through the Supreme Court of the People’s Republic of China spiked to 6,646 (...)

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Turkey’s economic slowdown continues, but exports offer some support

Turkey is experiencing a severe economic slowdown, coupled with a jump in inflation, as a result of the sharp depreciation of the lira during 2018.

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Global economy: industry is stalling

Global economy: industry is stalling - Despite the many obstacles in its path (diverse and varied political risks, high volatility of commodity prices, supply constraint s in advanced economies, to name but a few), world growth in 2018 managed to sustain its 2017 rate (3.2%)

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Country risk assessment map - January 2019

Country risk assessment map - January 2019

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Infographics - Sector risk assessments - January 2019

Infographics - Sector risk assessments

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Tighter global liquidity and Asia: not all gloom and doom

Asia has been under pressure following from tighter global liquidity in 2018, led by a rapid pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the Unites States (US) (...)

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Corporate insolvencies in France: all good things come to an end

The third quarter of 2018 marks a turning point for companies in France: for the first time in two years, insolvencies increased by 2.3% compared to the same quarter of the year previous (...)

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Could SMEs become the weak link in China’s economy?

when considering risk in the Chinese economy, a lot of the discussion has focused on large State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), or large private conglomerates (...)

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Wind energy: how long will the wind stay in the industry’s sails?

Wind energy undoubtedly has a bright future, with many countries around the world eager to develop this source (...)

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