Four months after the start of hostilities in Ukraine, what initial lessons can be drawn ?
As the horizon continues to darken, the risks are naturally bearish and no scenario can be ruled out.
Read our full publication.
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The latest edition of the Coface Country Risk Map. Consult and download Coface's risk assessments of 162 countries across the world.
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Coface's assessments of 13 major global sectors are based on 75 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. These assessments are based on Coface’s expertise and payment experience data, external financial data forecasts (quantiles), and multifactorial key items (commodities price forecasts, structural changes, Coface country risk assessment).
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Insolvency trends in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region have been subject to various economic conditions, support measures and legal changes over the last two years. Indeed, the Covid-19 pandemic that triggered the economic downturn and officially implemented lockdowns brought concerns not only for the macroeconomic activity but also the companies’ payment liquidity.
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In the short run, all sectors for which Coface publishes sector risk assessments in six regions worldwide will be impacted by the knock-on effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Which ones would be the most resilient sectors? Read our full study now!
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根據科法斯發布的《2022 年中國企業付款調查》,在 1,000 家受訪企業中,2021 年遭遇逾期付款的企業減少,但逾期時間比前一年延長(...)
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More than two months after the start of the war in Ukraine, prospects for a rapid resolution of the war seem increasingly unlikely.
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In this Focus, the Coface Economic Research team examines the economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising commodity prices in particular.
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Poland Corporate Payment Survey 2022: Return to normality – unwinding support programs, longer payment delays. The sixth edition of Coface’s survey on payment experience in Poland was carried out in November and December 2021 with 331 companies participating in the study.
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The global recovery continues in 2022, but a bumpy road lies ahead.
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The latest edition of the Coface Country Risk Map. Consult and download Coface's risk assessments of 162 countries across the world.
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Coface's assessments of 13 major global sectors are based on 75 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. These assessments are based on Coface’s expertise and payment experience data, external financial data forecasts (quantiles), and multifactorial key items (commodities price forecasts, structural changes, Coface country risk assessment).
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Morocco Corporate Payment Survey: shortened payment delays in 2021. During the second quarter of 2021, Coface conducted its fifth survey on the payment behaviour of 380 companies in Morocco, with the objective to monitor the evolution of payment terms and delays.
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Supply chain and inflation headwinds hamper the global recovery
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 75 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.
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New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 162 countries assessed by Coface.
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The trade relationship between China and Latin America has expanded considerably over the past two decades, gradually standing out (compared to the United States) as an important market for the region’s exports.
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The COVID-19 pandemic affected global retail activity through social distancing measures and store closures. Our Focus looks at varying effects across segments, as well as the outlook for the global retail sector.
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While the restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic put a stop to the resurgence of social movements, a new wave is on the horizon. The resurgence of mass protests, which had already been strong since 2017, mainly in emerging countries, is expected to accelerate again.
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For the second consecutive year, although Germany experienced a strong recession, the number and duration of payment delays in the country both decreased. Learn more in the fifth edition of our Germany Corporate Payment Survey.
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Middle East & Turkey economist Seltem Iyigun investigates the perspectives for the United Arab Emirates following the coronavirus pandemic in this Coface Focus.
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Metals used in electric vehicles are in high demand, as these cars at the forefront of a revolution in the automotive industry. Stringent regulations, States’ support schemes, and customers’ willingness to buy and own EV are bolstering demand for these vehicles. However, imbalances between supply and demand are pushing prices higher, while EV market shares have not overtaken that of traditional engines.
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Global GDP growth rate for 2021 revised upwards; Coface forecasting model indicates an 11% growth in world trade for this year.
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Coface's assessments of 13 major global sectors are based on 75 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. These assessments are based on Coface’s expertise and payment experience data, external financial data forecasts (quantiles), and multifactorial key items (commodities price forecasts, structural changes, Coface country risk assessment).
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The latest edition of the Coface Country Risk Map. Consult and download Coface's risk assessments of 162 countries across the world.
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More companies in Asia Pacific offered credit facilities in 2020 as competition intensified amid the challenging economic conditions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, firms had different responses to credit management despite facing similar economic shocks. Find out about them in our latest publication on Asia Pacific.
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The cultural changes the pandemic has brought will continue to shape the economy for years to come. Among these, the normalization of remote work is one of the most consequential. If it can be done from home, could it be done from abroad?
Check the risks and opportunities of virtual offshoring in our latest Focus by Marcos Carias our economist for Southern Europe and Coline Louis, Junior Economist.
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Coface’s 2021 China Corporate Payment Survey shows that payment terms shortened by 11 days on average in 2020, falling to 75 days, while the distribution of credit terms leaned towards a shorter rather than longer period.
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Coface's Northern Europe economist, Christiane von Berg, examines Germany's "hidden insolvencies" in our Focus.
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The United States leads the race to global recovery, emerging markets lag behind.
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The China-Australia bilateral relationship deteriorated sharply over 2020, with China imposing trade restrictions on a number of Australian exports. But there are growing concerns that an escalation of bilateral tensions will see China hardening its stance towards Australia.
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In our latest Focus on the United States, Coface's North America economist, Ruben Nizard, analyzes the economic legacy that President Joe Biden's administration must now manage.
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In France, the number of corporate insolvencies in January 2021 fell by 38% year-on-year – exactly the same drop as in 2020. Although the economic & health crisis has not affected all sectors the same way, insolvencies have fallen significantly across the board. However, taking into account government support measures and the drop in turnover by sector, insolvencies in France should have risen by 6.5% in 2020. Learn more about 2020’s “hidden insolvencies” in our Focus.
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Normally, insolvencies rise when the economy contracts. Yet, in 2020, insolvencies fell in all major eurozone economies. It is safe to assume that government support is keeping many fragile firms alive – are we therefore seeing the “calm before the storm”, with a wave of insolvencies around the corner?
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The COVID-19 pandemic’s negative impact on global GDP growth and trade volumes caused a sharp decline in oil prices. Coface expects oil prices to remain volatile in the upcoming quarters. Read our forecasts in our latest Panorama.
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The fifth edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Poland was carried out in November 2020, with 330 companies participating in the study, by Grzegorz Sielewicz, Coface Economist for Central & Eastern Europe.
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New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 162 countries assessed by Coface.
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 75 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.
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In spite of a gradual recovery, political risks are on the rise.
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In spite of a gradual recovery, political risks are on the rise
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.
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COVID-19 and its effects on the global and German economy is the predominant topic of this fourth edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany.
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Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the renewables segment of the global energy sector has continued its ascension.
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More payment delays alongside COVID-19 for Dutch companies
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The COVID-19 crisis has triggered a discussion on increasing supply chain resilience to foreign supply shocks.
Before the pandemic’s arrival in Europe, a lockdown of factories that temporarily suspended manufacturing in China put the supply of intermediary goods at risk. In order to limit such risks, supply chain managers are likely to diversify their sources of supply.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a mobility crisis, mainly because of physical distancing requirements and the necessity to avoid confined spaces, in order to limit the virus’ propagation. This has had a disastrous impact on the global transport sector, with air passenger transport being the most affected segment.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the United States (U.S.) very hard, inflicting a heavy human and economic toll.
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科法斯年度《亞太區企業付款調查》評估了亞太地區九個經濟體的企業付款行為。
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Spain and Italy will be amongst the economies hardest hit by COVID-19, contracting by 12.8% and 13.6% respectively in 2020, according to Coface’s forecasts. Taking a closer look at the health of Spanish and Italian corporate balance sheets should help identify pockets of vulnerability where widespread defaults are more likely to materialize.
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The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are of an unprecedented scale in Europe. The twin supply-demand shock has resulted in the halting of production (at least partially) in many companies as employees cannot go to work and in a fall in consumption because of mobility restrictions. The decline in revenues has deteriorated companies’ cash positions, fostering an increase in payment delays – and, ultimately, payment defaults.
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From a massive shock to a differentiated recovery
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New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 162 countries assessed by Coface.
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.
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新冠肺炎疫情嚴重影響經濟活動,科法斯2020年中國企業付款調查顯示,2019年企業付款行為發生惡化,66%受訪企業表示遭遇了逾期付款。2019年,平均信用期限穩定在86天。可以預計,那些因封鎖措施遭受嚴重衝擊的行業,為了維持生存不得不延期付款,有的企業甚至因而倒閉 (...)
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In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, global trade has been dragged down by numerous factors. However, as tight border controls begin to ease and producers begin to adapt, the good news is that global value chains still have a bright future.
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While the focus, so far, has mainly been on China, Europe and the United States, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be even more severe in emerging economies.
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鑒於新冠肺炎疫情對全球經濟的影響,中國恐怕無法實現2020年增長目標。
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COVID-19: heading towards a sudden global surge in corporate insolvencies
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Despite the economic slowdown, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in Poland shows that payment delays have systematically shortened since 2017 - but the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the Polish economy remains to be seen.
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World trade in the face of political and environmental change.
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New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 161 countries assessed by Coface.
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.
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Corporate insolvencies fell by 3.3% in France during the first ten months of the year. After a difficult first quarter, due in particular to the repercussions of the “yellow vest” movement, they have been steadily declining since May 2019. As a result, the number of corporate insolvencies is expected to decline over the full year, for the fourth consecutive time. However, Coface expects a slight rebound of insolvencies in 2020 (+0.9%), for around 52,000 proceedings, mainly due to the expected slowdown in the construction sector that was largely driven by public works in 2019.
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The global auto sector is facing several challenges including enhanced and stricter regulations against environmental risks in the context of a slowdown of the global economy.
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This is the third edition of Coface’s survey on payment experience in Germany, done this summer, with 442 participating companies located in Germany. Our survey highlights that Germany is in a changing phase. The pressure on companies due to international competition is getting stronger. This is one of the reasons why German companies have increased their average credit period from 29.8 days to 35.9 days between 2017 and 2019.
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Since the start of 2019, the signals warning of a slowdown in world growth have multiplied. While all economists agree on this downward trend, following the cyclical peak reached in 2017, there is now a question mark as to the scale of this slowdown, especially in the eurozone. While some commentators are suggesting the likelihood of a recession in 2020, most economists are predicting “only” a slight downturn.
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The agri-food sector (alongside the ICT sector), has been at the heart of the global trade war, aggravated by the fact that China’s retaliation measures have often targeted US soybean imports. As a consequence, the US agri-food sector, notably American soybean exporters are negatively impacted by this situation.
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Coface assessments are based on 70 years of Coface expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors. 5 financial indicators are taken into account: turnover, profitability, the net debt ratio, cashflow, and claims observed by our risk managers.
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New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 161 countries assessed by Coface.
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As usual, many political events marked the summer: another episode of the Argentine exchange rate crisis, an unexpected change of government in Italy, major demonstrations in Hong Kong and Russia, an ever more challenging continuation of the “Brexit” process and an attack on oil installations in Saudi Arabia.
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In 2018, the Netherlands were the sixth-largest goods exporter in the world. In the service-exports category, the Dutch placed eighth in 2015. Considering exports relative to GDP, the Netherlands took third place in 2015 (right behind Ireland and Switzerland). However, times have changed...
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The Central and Eastern European region has experienced unparalleled growth in the European Union. However, a slowdown is expected in the coming years.
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Despite improving economic performances across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), monetary and financial conditions remain tighter compared with before 2015. Access to financing remains one of the key issues for companies, particularly for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Loan growth in the region has recovered somewhat thanks to higher oil prices, but it remains below its historical average.
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去年,亞太地區(APAC)企業不得不面對多重政治、經濟及財務困境,如貿易戰、全球資本流動變化無常、美國及歐洲增長放緩、英國脫歐。為進一步了解這些事件對企業所造成的影響,科法斯在全球多國進行了年度企業付款調查。《2019亞太地區企業付款調查》涵蓋了亞太地區9個經濟體。調查在2018年第四季度展開,期間共收集了來自3,000家企業的數據。
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The first part of 2019 was marked by the decline in world trade, which will decrease in volume over the year as a whole according to our forecasts (-0.7%), despite a slight recovery expected in the second half of 2019.
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New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 161 countries assessed by Coface.
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Africa has seen a bevy of political events in recent months. After the deterioration of the security situation in the Sahel, as well as the forced departures of historical leaders from Algeria and Sudan via the streets, where will the political risks manifest in the second half of the year?
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The energy industry is quickly evolving: as renewable energy sources increase in popularity compared to fossil fuels, their costs are plummeting. New forms of electricity conservation have recently become the focal point of widespread international attention, resulting in heavy investment and research. Furthermore, natural gas is increasingly losing its reputation as a cleaner energy source in the battle against climate change, as it pollutes more than renewable alternatives.
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During the first four months of 2019, the rate of corporate insolvencies in France increased by +0.8%. This rate was particularly high during January and February, mainly due to the repercussions of the "gilets jaunes" (yellow vests) movement; however, the increasing rate of insolvencies declined in March and April. Nonetheless, Coface anticipates that, despite resilient economic growth, insolvencies will increase by +1.7% over the whole of 2019 (…)
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China has rapidly become a big player in 5G technology, thanks to the government’s strategy and its support of high investment in Research and Development (R&D). This new technology is part of the Made in China 2025 initiative, through which the Chinese government targets self-sufficiency in high-end industries. China coordinated its approach to 5G and some successes are already visible. For example, 40% of global patents for current 5G network standards are from Chinese firms. Moreover, Chinese companies are set to benefit from 5G. Huawei is the global leader in network infrastructures; it currently holds 29% of the market (...)
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The luxury market is unique, mainly due to the fact that its products are consumed for social distinction. This has helped companies in the segment to outperform other sector-segments over the past years. Nevertheless, the luxury market is facing important challenges, notably regarding counterfeit products, a risk for companies, and e-commerce, which is disrupting how business is conducted. In addition, the market is not immune to challenging economic conditions. Global economic activity is currently experiencing a slowdown: Coface forecasts a global GDP growth rate of 2.9% in 2019 after 3.2% in 2018, and this will have an impact on some luxury products. Looking ahead, the rise of emerging markets’ middle classes – especially in China – presents great opportunities. Despite global economic slowdown, we are therefore expecting the luxury retail market overall to be resilient, notably benefiting from the rise of Chinese consumers’ appetite for luxury.
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Central Asia is both a partner and a trade gateway for China and Europe. It is located on two branches of the New Silk Road. Despite criticism, China is the most involved in the development of Central Asian corridors. This deployment is not obvious given the competition from other routes and poor regional cooperation. While Russian influence remains significant through expatriate remittances, its military bases, and culture, it is being supplanted by China in economic matters.
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Signs of the global economic slowdown continued to accumulate at the beginning of 2019: companies are much less confident than a year ago, and global trade is showing signs of fatigue.
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New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 161 countries assessed by Coface.
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Infographics - Sector risk assessments
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When Narendra Modi ran for Prime Minister in 2014, he pledged to boost the competitiveness of India’s industrial sector to promote growth. Five years later, the economy is in a better position, but many of the structural fragilities that Modi inherited continue to afflict India today (...)
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In the context of a global oil market that is likely to remain volatile, the two largest Latin American economies – Brazil and Mexico – are expected to implement significant changes in their energy policies in the medium term. Both countries have appointed new presidents in the last year following polarised elections: in Brazil the right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro took office in January 2019, while December 2018 saw the arrival of left-wing André Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)1. Similarly, the two oil industries share two main common features: their state-owned companies have experienced significant financial and governance issues, and both countries are crude oil exporters and net oil derivative importers. Conversely, in terms of energy policies, they appear to be taking opposite directions.
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The Chinese economy experienced some challenges in 2018 . Corporate bond defaults in US dollars quadrupled, reaching an amount of USD 16 billion, while the number of bankruptcy cases settled through the Supreme Court of the People’s Republic of China spiked to 6,646 (...)
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Turkey is experiencing a severe economic slowdown, coupled with a jump in inflation, as a result of the sharp depreciation of the lira during 2018.
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Global economy: industry is stalling - Despite the many obstacles in its path (diverse and varied political risks, high volatility of commodity prices, supply constraint s in advanced economies, to name but a few), world growth in 2018 managed to sustain its 2017 rate (3.2%)
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Country risk assessment map - January 2019
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Infographics - Sector risk assessments
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Asia has been under pressure following from tighter global liquidity in 2018, led by a rapid pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the Unites States (US) (...)
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The third quarter of 2018 marks a turning point for companies in France: for the first time in two years, insolvencies increased by 2.3% compared to the same quarter of the year previous (...)
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when considering risk in the Chinese economy, a lot of the discussion has focused on large State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), or large private conglomerates (...)
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Wind energy undoubtedly has a bright future, with many countries around the world eager to develop this source (...)
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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has the second largest and the most diversified economy in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (...)
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The past quarter has been marked by a continued rise in oil prices and capital outflows from emerging markets (...)
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160 countries under the magnifying glass
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide
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While policies to open up trade have been a standard feature since the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, the 2008-2009 crisis proved a turning point (...)
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Political risks in Asia have increased, according to Coface’s Political Risk Model (...)
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With Greece about to pull out of its third bailout package, signs of economic recovery are multiplying: 2017 was a year marked by the return of positive growth (+1.4%), and - despite weakening growth in the eurozone - Greek GDP growth is expected to be close to 2% in 2018, with Greek households and businesses remaining more optimistic in the first half of the year than in 2017.
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Coface’s 2018 Asia Corporate Payment Survey covers nine economies. Data collection took place during the fourth quarter of 2017, and valid responses were collected from almost 3,000 companies. Respondents in Asia were under pressure to further extend their payment terms (...)
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Feels like déjà vu : Rising sovereign spreads in the eurozone, increased protectionism, higher oil prices, capital outflows from major emerging countries.
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide
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160 countries under the magnifying glass
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The loss of French influence is not only attributable to China: other major emerging countries, as well as some European neighbours, have entered the African market.
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The most-widely traded base and ferrous metals have benefitted from a bull market since mid-2016 (...)
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This is the fi rst corporate payment survey in Turkey aiming at indicating how payment terms stand in different sectors, how companies manage credi t management practices and evaluate future payment experience (...)
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Latin America has experienced a difficult period since 2014. The slump in commodity prices has impacted activity via several channels (...)
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Despite regional conflicts, the 2007-08 financial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other
interested parties (Russia, China).
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The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalisation of the exchange rate regime in January 2018.
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The leading Western economies continued to perform well during the first quarter of 2018. The United States (US) economy is expected to remain robust this year, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.3%.
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13 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE
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160 countries under the magnifying glass
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The Chinese economy staged a comeback in 2017. GDP ticked up from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2017, favoured by strong demand, as well as loose monetary and fiscal policy settings. As a result, risk managers have become more complacent, both in terms of their economic expectations and their risk management procedures.
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With the ongoing wave of elections in the Central and Eastern Europe region, CEE countries are experiencing a key period of change in a context of political risk and economic acceleration (...)
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China has undoubtedly modelled itself as the new champion of globalisation. Nowhere is this felt more strongly than in Asia. (...)
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The number of corporate insolvencies in France has continued to decline at the beginning of 2018: -8.3% year-on-year to end of January (...)
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The second edition of Coface’s survey on payment experiences in Poland was carried out in December 2017 (...)
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The Mexican automotive industry has experienced strong growth since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. (...)
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13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Every quarter, Coface reviews the assessments of 13 sectors throughout 24 countries in 6 major regions in the world (representing approximately 85% of global GDP).
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160 countries under the magnifying glass. Coface assesses the average credit risk of companies in 160 countries.
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Turkey’s economy grew substantially during the first three quarters of 2017, surging by 7.4% compared to a year earlier (...)
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The agrofood industry is facing a number of challenges in Europe1, including the central issue of how to share created value.
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Strength of organic companies and consumption growing faster than supply
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Strength of organic companies and consumption growing faster than supply
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Coface carried out its second payment survey for Germany this year, making it possible to compare results between the two surveys (...)
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Business proceedings aimed at insolvencies and restructuring have been on rise in Poland this year.
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The UK automotive industry is entering a dry period. The voices of the main UK industry representatives and their concerns regarding the negative effects of a potential hard Brexit appear to remain unheard (...)
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Falling in love is easier than staying in love: a tale of unbalanced exchanges and increasing dependency
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Unbalanced Trade links between China and Africa. Under threat from a potential drop in chinese demand
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Since Mauricio Macri took office in mid-December 2015, the economy has started to recover
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If the year 2017 is synonymous with a slight economic upturn in the emerging markets, let’s not forget the previous three years were marked by increased corporate risk
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For once, the summer proved to be particularly quiet. No major events disrupted the path taken by the world economy.
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12 Major sectors assessed worldwide, each quarter, by Coface.
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Each quarter Coface evaluates 160 countries with a unique methodology.
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During the commodity super-cycle that lasted over a decade, until around 2014, Latin American economies showed robust performance.
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Despite some slowdown last year, average GDP growth remained at a solid level of 2.9% in Central and Eastern Europe
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Automotive and transport is the leading sector in the region CEE
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Political changes in the US have caused uncertainty over the trade policies that could be implemented and the region’s vulnerability to tighter financial conditions. Since Donald Trump’s victory, the currencies of many emerging countries have fallen against the dollar. Mexico’s currency was the most greatly affected in the world, with 19 % depreciation against the USD in 2016 (...)
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Oil prices declined by around 75% between mid- 2014 and January 2016 (...)
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Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in eight selected economies(1) in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. Our corporate payment survey for 2016 showed that non-payment risks escalated on the back of financial stress and a looser approach to credit controls (...)
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At the end of the first quarter of 2017, we were wondering whether the timid global economic recovery was a flash in the pan (...)
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160 countries under the magnifying glass
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One year after the “yes” vote for Brexit, seen as traumatic, the time has come for the United Kingdom to accelerate the implementation of its exit from the European Union (EU).
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Between 1999 and 2008, Russia’s GDP grew by an average of almost 7% per year. In 2009, the fall in oil prices led to a severe recession (-7.8%).
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Labour markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are continuing to improve.
Unemployment rates have reached the lowest levels ever recorded and most CEE economies are enjoying lower unemployment than the EU average
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With an average increase in corporate insolvencies of 4.2% per year, 137,520 companies went bankrupt between 2008 and 2014
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In 2016, credit extension practices in China differed from those seen in previous years. Fewer Chinese companies offered credit sales – but (...)
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Signs of a recovery in global growth are multiplying at the start of 2017.
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160 countries under the magnifying glass
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Political risk seems to have been at the core of concerns since 2016, following numbers of articles and editorials on the topic (...)
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The potential depreciation of the renminbi (RMB), along with the implementation of capital flow measures, are longstanding concerns for China.
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January 2017 saw the drop in insolvencies, which started in May 2014, reach 58,031 - its lowest figure since September 2012 (-2.8% on the same period in 2016)
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Brazilian companies are currently faced with a challenging environment. GDP underwent an accumulated contraction of 7.4% during the two years of 2015-2016.
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Starting with falling oil prices and financial markets in the winter, the Brexit referendum in the summer and the election of Donald Trump in the autumn, 2016 was punctuated by a series of upsets.
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Despite the recent economic upturn, uncertainties will continue to dominate the global economic climate this year.
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South Africa’s growth performance has been in decline since the global financial crisis. Since peaking in 2011, the growth rate (hit by lower commodity prices and power supply problems) has continued to slow.
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Turkey’s economy experienced several shocks during 2015 and 2016. Heightened political uncertainties, regional tensions, the US rate hike process, the credit rating downgrade and domestic security issues, have all resulted in (...)
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The number of insolvencies in France continued to fall in the twelve months to end-October 2016 (-1.0%) (...)
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Why is the collaborative economy so captivating in France? First of all, because it is synonymous with youth and innovation. But also because sectors that (...)
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The signs for Germany’s further economic development are promising, with a high level of stability.
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For this quarter, the result is clearly negative once again, as eight sectors have been downgraded and only one upgraded. The changes concern North America (increased risks in the retail, textile-clothing, paper-wood and transport sectors), Western Europe (downgrade of the agrofood sector) and Central Europe (downgrades for construction and IT & communications, but an upgrade for the transport sector) and Middle East (downgrade for IT & communications).
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12 major sectors assessed worldwide
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Despite the silent impact of the first arrow on Japan’s exports, the operating profits of Japanese manufacturers which have been mainly exported oriented surged, in part due to their pricing-to-market behaviour.
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Mexico’s economy has been increasing above the Latin American average since 2012. While the region contracted by 0.5 % in 2015, Mexico, its second largest economy, grew by 2.5 %.
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The UK referendum in June, parliamentary elections in, Spain in December 2015 and June 2016..
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Concern again focused on oil prices, the emerging market thermometer
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160 countries under the magnifying glass
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Up until 2014, Latin America’s exports were boosted by China’s vast appetite for raw materials and the hike in their international prices..
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As a follow-up to the survey on Moroccan companies' payment periods published in May 2015, Coface here presents the results of the second edition (..)
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Poland has seen a slowing of its economy this year, compared to 2015. Nevertheless, growth is still continuing at a fair rate and, in fact, remains at a level which many other economies can only dream of.
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French growth has taken a time-out in Q2. The political uncertainties in the United Kingdom, the strikes in May and the floods affecting Ile-deFrance are all likely suspects responsible for this surprise halt. However, the figures are expected to recover in Q3.
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The importance of the Agrobusiness sector varies between the different North African economies. While on a regional level, the sector leads exports, on a country basis it differs. In Morroco, agribusiness benefits from government subsidies, as it contributes nearly 16% of GDP and provides employment for 40% of the population. Overall, across the main north African countries, the lowest level of risk is in Morocco...
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Despite having the highest healthcare expenditure of all industrialised nations (17.1% of GDP in 2013), the US public health outcomes are being outperformed by other advanced nations.
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2016 marks the first time Coface has carried out a payment survey for Germany. This follows on from other surveys presented this year for (...)
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In the light of the on-going structural reforms, the "tale of two Chinas" is resulting in sector wise winners and losers, linked to their growth potential in the medium and longer term, government policies and structural demand.
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Coface updates its risks outlook for 12 business sectors in 6 regions every quarter.
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12 major sectors assessed worldwide
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Companies in the Central and Eastern Europe region reported solid economic growth rates as well as more structured growth last year (..)
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The United Arab Emirates (UAE)’ economy is of the most diversified within the Gulf region
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The global economy remains stuck in a "Japanese-style" trap of sluggish growth, despite ever more expansionary monetary policies (..)
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Sluggish global growth, characterised in particular by China's loss of momentum, shock to commodity prices… Sub-Saharan Africa has not been spared in the global tempest and seeks to maintain growth against wind and tide. The commodity producers are the most affected.
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Coface helps you to assess business risks in 160 countries - Download our worldwide country risk assessment map.
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Bankruptcies drastically decreased in almost all countries in the region during the course of last year - especially in the four Northern Europe Region (NER) countries we focus on in this panorama, namely Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark.
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Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in 8 selected economies in the Asia Pacific region.
With mounting global uncertainties linked to China's growth moderation, the fiscal difficulties experienced by oil exporting countries and US monetary normalisation, overall payment experience in Asia is likely to remain weak in 2016 (..)
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Is the recovery finally under way? That is the question being asked after a start to 2016 marked by a series of positive indicators for the French economy. But after several false starts (..)
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Brazil entered into a technical recession in the second quarter of 2015. Its economy contracted by 3.8 % in 2015 (..)
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Hungary is performing well, considering the context of struggling economies globally.
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For the first time, Coface updates its global quarterly sector risk assessments for 12 sectors, in 6 regions worldwide (compared to 3 regions previously).
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12 major sectors assessed worldwide.
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Steel producers’ solvency weaker than ever. There is no improvement in sight before 2018.
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Sluggish growth, absence of inflationary pressures, ever more expansionary monetary policies and increased volatility in financial markets; these are four elements characterising the global economy in early 2016 (...)
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160 countries under the magnifying glass - Download our worldwide country risk assessment map.
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Halved growth between 2010 and 2015, sharply increasing debt, increased exposure to currency risk, growing scarcity and increased cost of credit, falling export revenues (...)
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Corporate payment experience in China remained weak in 2015. Chinese firms suffering from overcapacity and low profits have a higher probability of default (...)
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The German economy has changed its growth model during recent years. While internal demand (especially private consumption) – was sluggish and weak throughout most of the 2000s, it is currently the (...)
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In France, the number of company insolvencies fell for the second consecutive year in 2015, (-2.1%)
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During the China-Celac Forum, held at the beginning of last year, China announced its intention to increase its investment stock in Latin America to (...)
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After US households in 2007-2008 and Eurozone states in 2011-2012, emerging countries are now getting their turn at the epicentre of the storm, in part because of (...)
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During 2015, Turkey’s economy faced several challenges.
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Retail trade benefits from good prospects of consumer demand which, however, will not eliminate challenges for the sector including an intense competition and the implementation of new levy for retailers. Foreign chains will remain dominant taking an advantage of their large-scale bargaining position and offering the most attractive prices for consumers even despite being charged by the new tax.
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European wine consumption has fallen over these past years like that of France, which is a third of what it was 50 years ago.
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In a context of low worldwide growth, sectoral dynamics are mixed.
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Tenuous but confirmed. These are the terms that best describe France’s current growth - as illustrated by the figures for the third quarter, published in early November. Household consumption has (...)
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Coface estimates that growth will increase to 4.4% for 2015/2016.
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Brazil has grown over the last decade, as a result of the boom in commodity prices and strong household consumption (...)
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The increased economic activity in Poland already reached levels required to stabilise the number of company insolvencies.
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In a context of low growth, the global sectoral dynamics are mixed. In this overview we analyse five major sectors (...)
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European photovoltaic (PV) energy developed rapidly starting in 2010, thanks to national and European subsidies promoting its establishment in the energy landscape (...)
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For the fourth consecutive year, global growth will fail to exceed 3%. At the beginning of the year however, this target did not appear unattainable. (...)
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The Chinese economy has been in the spotlight for several months: devaluation of the yuan, stock market collapse, falling property prices, fears of an excessive economic slowdown, doubts about the reliability of published data and, more generally speaking, uncertainties about the rebalancing process the authorities have launched. (...)
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What are the impacts of lower oil prices on the gulf countries economy. Focus on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. What are the diversification strategies and the region’s integration with international trade. Focuses on the food and beverage sector in the UAE and automotive sector in Saudi Arabia.
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Growth in Latin America has been slowing down since 2011, and was estimated at 1.2 % in 2014 . This lacklustre result, caused by (...)
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Was the return to growth observed in Europe strong enough to bring about a lasting reduction in business failures?
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Coface’s seventh annual study on the biggest 500 companies in Central and Eastern Europe ranks the businesses by their turnover and additionally analyses data such as number of employees, the framework of the companies, sectors and markets. In 2014, the CEE Top 500 companies generated a turnover of EUR 572 billion, which exceeds even half of the aggregated 2014 nominal GDP of those economies. The biggest companies were able to increase their turnover as well as workforce.
- 2014: A year of improvement throughout the region – turnover increased by +2.1%
- Higher turnover of the biggest companies reflected better economic prospects in 2014
- 12 countries under study: Bulgaria, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Hungary
- Poland was the biggest player, Hungary had the highest growth rate and the Czech Republic recovered
- Ukraine was excluded from the ranking, due to the ongoing conflict and resulting difficulties in obtaining reliable company data
- Automotive industry (+10.6%) top, oil & gas sector flop (-3.9%)
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The automotive sector plays an important role in the CEE’s economic activity. Thanks to low labour costs, the educated workforce, geographical proximity to Western European markets, tax incentives and the stabilising legal environment, CEE countries have become attractive destinations for investment by global car manufacturers.
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Download our country risk map. 160 countries assessed with a unique methodology: Macroeconomic expertise, Business environment and Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience.
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In this panorama, we first set out a study examining the economic situation and outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
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The Indian economy is benefitting from rising confidence, but as the BJP still lacks majority in the Upper House of Parliament, potential problems with policy implementation can be considered as a major downside risk.
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After a decade of well-implemented reforms and high growth rates, the Turkish economy seems to be struggling to maintain the same growth performance.
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Company insolvencies stabilized with a just minor drop by 0.5% as the regional average. Our scenario assumes that companies should experience further gradual decline of insolvencies this year facing good prospects for internal demand and more visible recovery of Eurozone as the CEE’s main trading partner.
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This barometer sets out the latest trends for company insolvencies for the first four months of 2015 in France. After a 2.9% fall recorded for 2014, a level not observed since 2010 (-3.8%), the first four months of the year were marked by a rebound in insolvencies
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Since the introduction of milk quotas in 1984, until their effective ending in 2015, milk production has undergone many reforms.
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Overview of payment practices in Morocco and economic prospects for businesses
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Moroccan economy remains resilient during the last world economic crisis and was able to resist to Arab springs. In an increasingly unstable International environment, Morocco remains stable.
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Coface (Asia Pacific) conducts surveys in 8 economies to trace the evolution in corporate payments. This report is designed to be a point of reference which gives readers an overview of the economic and industrial development in these countries. The study is supported by the results of the payment survey, as well as other macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators.
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The automotive sector in the US, deeply impacted by the onset of the 2007 crisis, seems to be currently a part of a virtuous circle.
As the car sales are on an upward trend, some risks could derail the sector economy, though.
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The changes in our sector assessments reflect the development of the world economy since the end of 2014, marked by the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies, the oil price collapse and gradual recovery in the Eurozone. These trends have had repercussions on most of the sectors we track.
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Since the signature of the Pacto por Mexico in December 2012, an agreement struck by the three main political parties, the country has witnessed a variety of reforms. President Peña Nieto was efficient in securing cross-party support and big improvements, were made in 2013. The government obtained approval for a landmark energy reform, bringing to an end the 75-year old monopoly of state-owned Pemex and, by opening the oil and gas industries to private investment, freed up the labor market. It has also introduced competition in the telecoms sector. However sluggish growth was reported in 2013 and during the early part of 2014.
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In this panorama we first set out a study examining how the advanced economies are facing up to the challenge of weak economic growth since the Lehman Brothers collapse, that is for the past seven years now! Some observers are even talking of "secular stagnation". But, in our view, not all the advanced economies are facing the same challenges regarding this risk of longterm stagnation. We believe that (...)
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The Czech Republic is back on fast track. After falling into recession in 2012 and 2013 due to sharp fiscal consolidation and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, the economy regained momentum reaching solid growth rate of 2.0% in 2014 and should gain speed with (...)
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Ongoing economic scenario in Brazil remains sensitive, Coface expects GDP to break even in 2014 and activity should contract by 0.5% in 2015. Industry dropped by 3.2% in 2014 and will probably record another negative year in 2015. The year has just started, but it may reserve some negative surprises.
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Coface conducts an annual survey of payment experience in China. With 80% of the survey respondents shared overdue experience and 56.7% of them saw an increase in overdue amount over the past year, the overall payment experience in China remained very challenging in 2014.
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Latin America is a major producer of commodities and recent drop in oil prices is impacting countries of the region in different ways. Some of them may benefit from lower international quotation, others are negatively impacted already in the short term and finally a third group could be affected in the medium term only (...)
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Development of start-ups: what are the keys to success?
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This barometer presents the new trend in business insolvencies. We are reviewing the results for 2014 and the first orientations for 2015 with insolvencies for January. After two consecutive years of growth, the number of insolvencies over 2014 had decreased by 2.9%.
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How do the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies perform after the social and political turmoil caused by the socalled “Arab Spring” late in 2010? Have social and economic demands of protesters resulted in a healthier economic outlook in these countries? The panorama will focus on hydrocarbon sector for the GCC countries and on the textile sector for the North Africa region. It will also assess the latest trends in construction, tourism and automotive sectors across the MENA region to evaluate possible corporate risks.
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Company insolvencies in Turkey: Rise in exchange rates and slowdown in domestic demand affected payment performance. Impaired profitability made payments difficult. Focus on some sector risks : Metal, Automotive, Food, Chemical, Construction, Retail, Textile & apparel.
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Over the years Latam has begun to be associated with economic growth, new middle class, poverty reduction and controlled inflation.
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The number of insolvencies at the end of October stood at 63,002 companies, a figure down by - 0.9% over the last 12 months. This is the lowest level recorded since August 2013 (...)
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The term "deflation" seems to be on everyone's lips in Europe these days, not just on those of economists. The buzz around the term is not surprising, as Eurozone inflation has been falling for the past three years. France is no exception (...)
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This end of year panorama starts with the risk assessment of 14 sectors in the three regions we monitor.
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Poland is a headline example of the country that didn’t record recession in recent years. However, in micro terms companies insolvencies have been on...
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The world economy has entered into a confirmed, but slow and uneven, recovery phase.
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After five challenging years Romania’s economic performance proved that it has become one of the leaders of the European recovery and exceeded expectations with GDP growth rising by 3.5% in 2013. However, the slowdown of the growth in 2014 shows another picture.
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Activity in Brazil remains lackluster, inflation stands above the target , interest rates are among the highest in the world, confidence remains at a low level across a variety of indexes and the well-known low investment ratio continues to deteriorate. What is the impact on companies' payment capacity?
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Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese government has continued its effort to carry out various items on the reform agenda, particularly on fine-tuning the structure of the Chinese economy. While various aspects of reform are underway, growth is by no means forgotten. With plenty of signs showing lackluster growth momentum in this year, it is believed that the government is likely to introduce stronger stimulus to sustain economic growth. More specifically, the continuation of targeted-stimuli is expected.
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From 2004 to 2008 Brazil had grown, on average, by 4,8% a year, but in the former period, from 2009 to 2013, the average rate declined to 2,7%. The country did not take advantage of the good winds to make important reforms, such as improving the infrastructure and the business climate...
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Thanks to vigorous growth since the second quarter of 2012, we anticipate the UK economy to get back to its pre-crisis level in the third quarter of 2014.
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If the tensions rise again as it happened in December and January, this may harm investors’ confidence and result in a fluctuation in forex markets. Such a situation would have a negative impact on the corporate sector’s external debt stock which is already at record high level.
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New barometer of companies insolvencies in France : a lull is observed from January to April 2014, the number of insolvencies falling by 2.3%. This barometer is followed by a comparison between the situation
of SMEs in France and Spain.
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According to the survey of credit risks management in Asia Pacific by Coface, corporate payment experience in the region generally stabilised. Companies in Australia and China suffered more non-payment. The growth slowdown in China remains a concern for other economies in the region in 2014.
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Focus on the electronics industry in Emerging Asia, a region that has become in a matter of years the world’s workshop for many electronic components.
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While the 2008-2009 global crisis had highlighted emerging market resilience, game-changing events have taken place in those emerging countries since May 2013 indeed.
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The overall payment experience in China has deteriorated in 2013 comparing to 2012.
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Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee (CPCCC) in November, a broad spectrum of exciting reform plans have been announced, and the government had a series of follow-up actions. These are clear signals that the Chinese effort to restructure the economy is more than just rhetoric.
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You will find in it our usual barometer, which assesses the risks to which companies in fourteen key industrial sectors in emerging Asia, North America and Western Europe are exposed.
We have also included an analytical focus on European textiles. This traditional industry was affected very early by globalisation, and, in particular, competition from developing countries.
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In this Panorama, you will find the Coface barometer, which analyzes the evolution of French insolvent companies between November 2012 and October 2013.
We then publish a study on insolvencies in the French construction sector, overrepresented in insolvencies compared to it weight in the economy.
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The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee (CPCCC) was held between November 9 and 12 in Beijing. The plenary session outlined the major economic directions of China in coming years which will have direct impacts on various industries and the vast business community.
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This panorama contains a study on household consumption in Asia. How big is the rise in household consumption in this region? Have Asian households taken on too much debt? What are the specific consumer behaviour patterns in Asia? Which sectors are benefitting most from this expansion of consumption?
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This Panorama includes our global sector barometer, which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors in three of the world‘s major regions (European Union, North America and Emerging Asia) through a single credit risk indicator. In Europe, sector risks continue to deteriorate, especially in chemicals due to the remaining difficulties in the European industry, and also in the pharmaceutical branch due to the fiscal tightening measures taken by the governments.
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Ranked seventh in the world (and the second largest emerging economy) by GDP size, Brazil is the archetypal emerging country. But, the Brazilians’ legendary optimism has been sorely tested for the last two years: Can the Brazilian economic engine be repaired?
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This panorama contains a study of the Italian economy, which analyses and interrogates both macro- and microeconomic issues. We also present the latest adjustments to our country assessment.
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This new Panorama contains the results of our Company Insolvency Monitor from April 2012 to April 2013 and the results of a study on insolvencies among Eastern European countries, a region experiencing a sharp rise in insolvencies rate.
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Coface releases a series of economic reports and is pleased to announce the publication of its second Panorama sector report. Readers will find in it a global sector barometer which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors. The originality of the analysis is that it is based on aggregating the accounts of 6,000 companies in three of the world’s major regions: the European Union, North America and Emerging Asia.
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In this Panorama, Coface highlights the radical transformation of risks in emerging countries. While traditional country risk (sovereign risk, external vulnerability) has appreciably declined, three new risks are appearing and need to be monitored.
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The 17th Country Risk Conference held by Coface on 22 January 2013 has confirmed the complexity of a situation where, more than ever, the world seems to be «split in two»: advanced versus emerging countries.
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The global economic slowdown is confirmed this fall, in line with the recession in the eurozone and the emerging market deceleration.
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